Local Municipal Candidates – The Real Kingmaker in NL

The provincial election in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) is now over, and the result is surprising: after 10 years of Liberal government, the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) have squeaked out a majority government. But if you went by the polls as recently as last week, you might be forgiven for thinking the Liberals were going to win a crushing victory. Indeed, not even 5 days ago, Mainstreet Research pegged the Liberals at 52% of decided voters, and 338Canada consistently placed them 10 points up from the opposition PCs. Add in the fact that the outgoing Liberal government had decent approvals numbers (55%), a reasonably well-liked Leader in John Hogan (45% vs 27% for PC Leader and now premier-designate Tony Wakeham), and recently scored a major success with a new Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between Hydro-Québec and NL Hydro on electricity generation in Labrador, and the picture becomes even less clear. So, what happened?

The truth, as always, is complex and hinges, in true NL fashion, on the strength and on-the-ground connections of local candidates.

At a time when the Liberal and Conservative parties across the country are growing increasingly apart, the main issue for voters in NL is being able to distinguish one from the other. Never a people for overt partisanship, Newfoundlanders and Labradorians need to use other metrics to evaluate our candidates, and that is precisely what happened here. If the party offerings are substantially similar, and neither leader terribly exciting, most voters turn to the last bastion of election information – their local candidate. And thus does the rubber meet the road.

In NL, local name recognition and a sense of belonging to one’s own community beat partisan politics and polls, every time.

This election was a fantastic microcosm of this exact phenomenon, playing out over multiple close districts and handing the win to the party that ran candidates that could credibly say, “I’m like you; I’m from here; this is home”. As you might imagine, an enormous number of those successful candidates, on all sides, were local elected officials, while the biggest losers were often parachuted in.

A few examples spring to mind, like local favourite and soon-to-be former Mayor of Deer Lake, Mike Goosney, winning Humber-Gros Morne, formerly the seat of two Liberal premiers. A would-be safe seat in any other province easily went to the local Mayor because of his deep connection to the region. Former Deputy Mayor of St. John’s, Sheilagh O’Leary, after several attempts at a seat, finally found success in St John’s East – Quidi Vidi in a hotly contested Liberal-NDP swing seat, beating out Liberal known-quantity John Whelan.

Former Mayor Paul Pike won in Burin-Grand Bank, former Mayor Jim Parsons took Corner Brook, former Deputy Mayor Bettina Ford won Gander, former Councillor Lucy Stoyles succeeded in Mount Pearl North; the list could go on.

What speaks volumes here is the importance of the municipal order of government in developing the provincial and sometimes federal leaders of tomorrow. Through municipal service, local officials get to know their neighbours and the needs of the municipality and region. They learn about the way the province works and manages towns, and overall make a local name for themselves. And being “from here”, when “here” might be a tiny town of 300 residents, or a vast region of disparate communities, is worth its weight in votes. In fact, based on the results of last night’s vote, a plurality of the winning candidates, about 38%, had an elected municipal background, more than any other background, including the usual resumes of law, business, and party insiders.

Naturally, the preponderance of local candidates was not the only factor in this election. Districts in Labrador voted strikingly against the MOU championed by the Liberals, with many residents opposing any new energy development on traditional land. But even then, local favourites like Lela Evans, who has switched from blue to orange and back to blue, still succeeded, capturing more than 90% of the vote.

Running locally elected candidates doesn’t guarantee you a government, but you can’t win one without them. Power in this province runs through candidates that represent local issues; far and away, those are municipal leaders.

We often say that all politics is local, and if that is true in Toronto, it is doubly true in Newfoundland and Labrador. Time and again, NL voters prove that partisanship pales in comparison to local strength, the real indicator of an electoral district’s lean. And in a way, isn’t that how democracy is supposed to work? In the modern era, obedient parties and the leader-as-saviour model of politics have become ubiquitous all around the democratic world, moving away from the idea of unique representatives speaking their truths to power, and into a world where they’re just numbers on a whipped list. With “red-team/blue-team” mentalities dominating the Western world, let’s embrace our unpredictable elections and appreciate the uniqueness and strength that come from a deep pool of provincial expertise.

What do you think of the results in NL? What are the factors that make locally elected candidates so attractive to provincial parties and voters? Please email me your thoughts at tyler@strategicsteps.ca.